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Urea: How long can the "small universe" erupt?

2019/6/27


To say which chemical fertilizer market is relatively hot recently, of course, non-urea is the only one! ! ! Since the second half of May, urea prices have risen step by step, local supply is even very tight, and supply is insufficient. The "small universe" continues to break out. According to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, as of now, the mainstream price of urea in most regions has increased by 30-80 yuan/ton; the urea market in each region has similar performance and is different. It is like the glory of the three countries, which is the political situation in which each of the three countries occupies one party. Although the urea market is not so serious at present, the market for urea has formed a different pattern, and the differentiation is slightly more obvious. For example, the urea price in the northeast region increased significantly, and the ex-factory price of some urea manufacturers rose by about 40 yuan/ton. The urea market in North China, Central China and East China was basically stable. The local price had a dark drop last week. The supply of urea in the northwest and Xinjiang was tight. Some manufacturers Insufficient work, the provincial agricultural resources said it is difficult to find a urea manufacturer that can supply the spot.
At present, it is the topdressing season of corn, rice and cotton in many places. The downstream fertilizer is better. The supply of urea in the market in Gansu, Xinjiang and Northeast China is scarce, and the price rises mainly. In addition, some urea manufacturers in Inner Mongolia have stopped testing and still have A few large factories were affected by environmental inspections, and the urea plant was forced to stop production. The shortage of supply was more obvious. At present, the reference price of most local urea sales has risen by 50 yuan/ton to about 1450-1480 yuan/ton, some of which are sent to the northeast or It has reached 1600-1630 yuan/ton and the ex-factory price sent to Ningxia area is 1480-1500 yuan/ton. The sudden emergence of the urea market in Northeast China has surprised both the upstream and downstream. It is understood that the temperature in Northeast China is lower this year. Influencing the progress of topdressing in local areas, as the temperature rises, the urea topdressing subsidies are gradually launched, and the urea price is rising. In addition, compared with other regions, the urea price in Xinjiang is lower than other mainstream prices, and the market has been changed. People call it the "image" with low prices, many sources of supply, and a wide flow. This time, Xinjiang Urea is even in the first-line market of price increases. Dealers in Gansu Province indicated that the current purchase of urea in Xinjiang is very difficult. The arrival volume can't keep up with the progress of topdressing, and the price has risen to a high level. The wholesale price in Jinchang, Gansu is about 1550 yuan/ton, while the local urea in Gansu is only for large orders. The province's agricultural resources are even difficult to obtain supply; although the amount of urea used in Yunnan is not much, but the support of the surrounding market and urea supply is not much, urea prices are also rising.
How long can the "small universe" of urea still erupt? Undoubtedly, we must answer from both supply and demand. First, according to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, as of now, the operating rate of urea enterprises is 57.23%, which is gradually picking up. The recovery plan of some overhauled urea enterprises may also be carried out intensively to make up for the losses in the previous period, plus the urea returned from the port. Next, the possibility of increasing the supply of urea in the domestic market is relatively large; first, the demand is gradually weakening. It is understood that the topdressing of the local area has ended, the urea price has dropped slightly, and the topdressing of some areas can continue to this. At the end of the month, it is more likely that the urea market will have a surplus supply in most areas in the later period. However, it is not excluded that there will be a small amount of surplus in the local area due to factors such as climate and rainfall. It is expected that the small universe of urea can basically erupt until the end of the period. There may be a small shock.